GERMANY'S STAND-PAT CAMPAIGN

And the Very Gloomy Prospects of an Early Peace

FREDERICK JAMES GREGG

IT may seem absurd, on the face of it, to talk about Germany's stand-pat campaign, seeing that the operations on the Western front—eespecially at Verdun—have been of the most positive nature. But it must be remembered that the Prussian idea of defense is to combine resistance with a quick offensive, now at this point, then at another, so as to keep the enemy from using his full strength anywhere. What has puzzled the on-lookers, who are supposed to see most of the game, is to discover the true objective of the Kaiser's forces, from time to time.

There is no doubt that the Central Powers —absolutely dominated by Germany—are in an admirable position to consider peace. They are in possession of all Belgium but a strip of sea sand; of a large slice of France; of Poland, and a considerable part of Russia, while Servia and Montenegro have been wiped out, for the time being, as members of the family of nations. Furthermore the enemy territory held by Germany, in the East and the West, is rich in all the mineral and other natural resources which could possibly make it valuable for diplomatic or any other reasons.

IN addition, her own territory in Europe is free from foreign invasion. There is nothing lost at home for which she has to consider the necessity of buying back at the cost of concessions in other directions. If she went into a Peace Conference she . could demand terms, and heavy ones, for what she has it in her power to give up. In a word, she is in a position to make the Allies pay through the nose for the restoration of tranquillity in what used to be called the civilized world. So her main object must be to hold on to what she has, for occupied territory is the money of diplomacy.

Even should a part of the German people grow restless, the government has a ready answer to all criticisms. If the British fleet holds the sea, in spite of what was to happen on "the day," so long awaited, the submarines have sunk innumerable merchant and passenger ships, and the commanders of raiders have become famous for their daring. If France was not conquered in three weeks, at least Belgium was captured and is being held and exploited. If Russia was not crushed, Poland is certainly in German hands, together with the parts of the Czar's Empire that has already been peacefully occupied by German business-men. If the road to Persia and to the Suez Canal and Egypt have been blocked by the Grand Duke Nicholas, German influence, nevertheless, is established in the Balkans. If Greece and Rumania have not been induced to join the Central Powers, they have, at least, been kept from going over actively to the Allies. If Calais has not been captured, as a step towards the invasion of England, the towns of England and the city of London have been bombarded by Zeppelins. If there is no indemnity in sight to pay for the war, there is obviously enemy territory to have and to hold for a profit.

The German people believe that the war has been a series of victories—for them. They are so convinced of this that many of them complain of the stupidity of the Allies in not throwing up their hands and admitting that they are beaten. They chafe over the delay in starting the practical reorganization of Europe, with the Empire as the predominant power, and the postponement of the resumption of trade, with the Empire doing most of the big business. Even the Socialists are satisfied, but with a difference. They contend that since Germany has proved herself invincible to the attacks of her enemies, she can afford to be merciful and make terms.

But that is not all. Not only does the Kaiser hold hostages in the shape of land and cities, not only has the national appetite for glory been satisfied, but the War has demonstrated, as that of 1870-71 did not, that all the local, provincial spirit has gone out of the Fatherland, and in its place has come an overwhelming sense of Imperial unity. The names Saxon, Bavarian or Wurtemburgian no longer mean anything. Prussia rules the army. All belong to the army. The army is unbeaten. Germany accepts that institution as the symbol of her greatness.

THERE are plenty of signs that Germany, sitting tight, is willing to make peace, on her own terms. Unofficial, but very trustworthy hints have come from the Embassy at Washington, now the most important fixed center of Teutonic news in the world. German newspapers have stated with fervor that they have never really hated France, that they have nothing against Italy, and, as for the poor deluded Russians, that they were really very sorry for them. Several times the Chancellor was announced as ready to say what terms the nation was ready to consider. Finally, and most important of all, the Kaiser was reported as remarking, in a speech, that his grandfather did not consider the victory of '70 over France as anything like a final achievement of Germany's aims. Then came a hint that a conclusive result might not be attained in the present war. But it would seem that he could afford to wait, for as long as the new spirit of the Empire could be roused to white heat at will, the completion of what had been accomplished might well be left to another and more convenient occasion. Everybody should be satisfied that nothing would be neglected in the way of preparation.

In the meantime, conscious of its advantageous situation, in the way of material to work with, German diplomacy has been as busy as the German Army. Cautious, but persuasive efforts were made to induce France, Italy and even Russia in turn to get out of the struggle. These came to nothing, and the announcement of the failure of Berlin took the shape, on two different occasions, of a solemn reaffirmation of the original agreement among the Allies to make no separate peace. That is to say, the only peace which could be even considered, would be one in which all united.

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England alone has not been approached. She remains "the enemy," in spite of her failure to win great glory on land in the war. In fact, in obvious, tangible gains, she and Germany are the only two Powers who have profited; the one abroad, the other in Europe. She has not been invaded. Although Germany holds part of France and Russia, Great Britain has increased her colonial possessions by nearly a million square miles. Although the German speaking race has been brought by the struggle into a state of solidarity, such as never existed before, the British Empire on the other hand has been welded into one compact whole, such as statesmen did not even dream of in the Victorial era.

THERE was a time, not so very long ago, when hasty persons were confident that Russia was "out of it" for good. But Russia has. demonstrated that in reality she had only begun. There was a time when France had made all preparations to lose Paris, —and yet go on with the fight. But there is not the slightest sign that either of these nations, or Italy, has any desire for peace—that is to say the sort of peace that Germany could offer without admitting practical defeat. Yet, if England did lose one or even two Allies, there are those who believe firmly that she could keep up*the struggle, by devoting all her attention to sea operations and the defence of her foreign possessions. Those who take this view point to what happened when Great Britain was left isolated in one period of the twenty year Napoleonic wars.

But, as a matter of fact, although Germany has the means at hand to buy peace from the Allies, as a group, or separately, every statement made by responsible statesmen, in London, Paris, Petrograd or Rome, goes to show that the Allied Powers have not even considered her possible propositions. When Mr. Asquith was backed into a corner by a Socialist, the other day, he declared that there could be no peace until Belgium and Servia had recovered all and more than they had sacrificed; until France was adequately secured against aggression, and until the military domination of Prussia had been "wholly and finally destroyed."

As it is inconceivable that Germany could accept such a theory as that without a crushing defeat, it simply means that, for the present, there is no possible common ground on which the belligerents can come together for the purpose of considering a compromise. If the present temper of the Allies continues, the war must go on. So long as Germany keeps a firm grasp on her gains, she will refuse to make proposals which would seem to presuppose that she had acquired no advantages whatever.

GERMANY has come to have a firm belief in the army as a God-sent institution. Its success—as Germany sees it—is the proof of its divine origin. There is no poetical exaggeration in the occasional addresses of the Emperor. Here is an extract from a sermon by Pastor Zoebel of a Lutheran church in Leipzig: "There ought to be no compromise with hell, no mercy for the servants of Satan—in other words, no pity for the English, French and Russians, nor indeed for any nation that has sold itself to the Devil. They have all been condemned to death by a divine decree." Dr. Reinhold Seeberg, the famous Professor of Theology of Berlin University, is equally explicit. "Divine love," he said one Sunday, "is seen everywhere in the world, but men have to suffer for their salvation. Human parents love their children, yet they chastise them. Germany loves other nations, and when she punishes them, it is for their good." Led by the clergy, all classes are satisfied with the army. So it is not to be expected that anything but the thrusting of the army out of Belgium and France will shake the confidence of the German people in the embattled forces of the nation. To argue that the big, original aims of the war have not been attained is not sufficient to bring conviction. So long as the Imperial forces are defending what they have won, and that successfully, there is no reason to believe that there will be any lack of confidence in them. What might happen if they were forced to withdraw to the frontier to safeguard German soil is quite another matter.

The resentment felt towards the few peace advocates to be found in France and Great Britain, arises from the belief that any peace to which Germany would agree, at the present time, would be as delusive as the peace that interrupted the Balkan War. It would only be a breathing space in which to prepare for another outburst, which might be worse than the last.

MR. ELIHU ROOT complained the other day that International Law had ceased to exist; had sunk to the level of a mere code of etiquette, involving no sanction. The Allies complain that Germany, while insisting that she has the right to suit her own convenience on land, where she is powerful, is clamorous about enforcing what she calls the "freedom of the seas," where she is not powerful. So the ethical element is pushed into the quarrel. It is contended that so long as the huge German military machine remains intact, and keeps the respect of the German people, it will be impossible to restore the rules of warfare to what they were before the storm broke, and so that it will depend on the whim of individual nations to say whether or not we have gone back permanently to the hideous methods of the Middle Ages, the method of "he may take who has the power and he must keep who can."

Terriblcncss has not had any military effect on any front, by land or by sea. But it has embittered the foes of German power, and strengthened their grim determination to fight it out if it takes all summer and many other summers, as well.